Let me just say that I am not a big fan of the way the college football playoff teams are selected. I don’t even know how I would fix it but I just don’t like it at all. I would love to make it an 8 team playoff and just stretch out the games an extra week, it would be an easy fix. There are more than 4 teams each year deserving to fight for the natty. Look at Penn State last year or USC, both teams coming into the postseason red hot but neither of them could make it due to losses in September. Just pick the 4 best teams and don’t look so much into all of the other politics of it. Here’s my top 4 after this weekend’s games
I don’t even see an argument here. Even when Georgia was at 1 it didn’t make any sense. Bama is so obviously the best team in the country. They have the experience, the best coach in history, and the most amount of talent in the country. Bama faces a tough test next week against Auburn but even with a loss, they probably get in. That won’t be an issue though. Alabama will wipe the floor next week at the Iron Bowl and get ready for another top 10 face off with Georgia in the SEC Championship. All that Bama really has to do over the next 2 weeks is win 1 game and they’ll be in.
I think there is something to say in the rankings for a team with the best player in the country (excluding Saquan Barkley). They have 1 loss to a very solid Iowa State team who has actually been surprisingly decent especially after they beat Oklahoma. The Sooners might not have the best defense but Baker Mayfield is literally never out of a game. They get West Virginia next weekend at home possibly without an injured Will Grier which won’t be a problem then the Big 12 title game against TCU most likely. Oklahoma should win out and get into the playoff and get the respect they and Baker deserve.
These teams are completely interchangeable for me because they play in the ACC Championship in two weekends. Miami gets Pitt on Friday after Thanksgiving and Clemson gets a solid South Carolina team. Assuming neither of these teams trip up next weekend the winner of the ACC Championship game will get into the playoff. Even if Miami loses the ACC Championship and that is their only loss they’re not getting in as a 1 loss team most likely. Clemson will get in even with a horrible loss at Syracuse. That’s the Dabo effect and some recency bias. I love Miami but something tells me they can’t be counted on. I could totally see them losing to Pitt but if not Clemson should take care of them. Clemson will be in.
4. Ohio State/Wisconsin
Yeah, I can’t believe it either but I think Ohio State will sneak into the top 4. Lets see how: Ohio State will handle Michigan next weekend and Wisconsin will finish at 12-0 after wasting their time next Saturday against Minnesota. Wisconsin doesn’t seem legit to me; they have played absolutely no one and you can say they beat Michigan but that’s the only ranked team they’ve played, they played them at home, and Michigan was only ranked because of Jim Harbaugh’s presence. I can see Ohio State as a double digit favorite against Wisconsin in Indy and when Ohio State beats Wisconsin, the Badgers will be out of the playoff with that terrible strength of schedule. I think everyone can agree that a 2 loss Ohio State team is still better than a 1 loss Badger squad. Ohio State needs Bama to beat Auburn which will knock them out, Bama to beat Georgia in the SEC title game which would knock them out, and hope the committee sees them as better than either a 2 loss Clemson team (which they will) or a 1 loss Miami team (still to be seen).
First 2 out with no chance
Above I have the teams that still have a possible chance. You can say Auburn does and Georgia does but I’m just assuming they lose to Bama because it’s Bama. I really only see a path for those 6 teams so here are the top 2 teams that don’t have a path to the playoff.
- Penn State
This Nittany Lion team is absolutely legit. They lost 2 games on the road to ranked teams by a combined 4 points. Just tough luck for James Franklin. They have the best running back that I’ve seen since Reggie Bush in Saquan Barkley and a very capable quarterback in Trace McSorley. They will not be playing in the Big 10 championship game like last year and will probably finish at 10-2. A 2 loss team that doesn’t win their conference title just doesn’t have a path and that’s the tough part about a 4 team playoff because this team is legit.
The Trojans are in a very similar position to Penn State except they’ll have a chance to play in their conference title game. They have a top 5 NFL pick also in Sam Darnold and are an exciting team to watch. USC obviously wont get into the playoff but I’d love to see a USC and Penn State bowl game rematch, wouldn’t you?